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Offer forecast
Thousands of simulated searches from your own numbers: when a first offer is likely, and which change moves it most.
The numbers below are starting guesses. Put in your own: the forecast is only as good as they are.
Half of 2,000 simulated searches had a first offer by week 16.
38% by week 12.
Line: chance of a first offer by that week. Shaded band: where most runs land. Green line: week 12.
Which change helps most
Running the what-ifs…
Points are the change in the chance of an offer by week 12.
Questions
- How does the forecast work?
- It runs 2,000 simulated searches. Each week sends your applications; each one may become a first call, then interviews, a final round and an offer, each step a week or two later, at the rates you set. The chart shows the share of runs with an offer by each week.
- Where do my rates come from?
- Your own history is best. Members who track applications on the application board get their rates filled in once ten or more applications are logged.
- Why does a better screen rate often beat more applications?
- Every step multiplies. A few more first calls flow through every later stage, while extra applications at a low first-call rate mostly vanish at the first step. The what-if list shows which lever wins for your numbers.