Got an overpayment notice, what now? - 22 weeks in

The agency says I reported earnings incorrectly, but I think I followed the instructions. I have read a lot of threads here and could not find my exact situation. I did not notice any errors at the time. Who should I talk to first?

I asked for a waiver and a plan in the same call, and they gave me both forms. It was less scary than I expected.